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Objective To study the utility and feasibility of CRAMS score to assess prognosis of patients with acute trauma.Methods A retrospective review of 1 802 patients with acute trauma was conducted to calculate CRAMS and ISS score.Receiver operation characteristic curve (ROC) was used to measure the prognostic role of CRAMS in comparison with ISS.Results Area under the curve (RUC) was 0.885 for CRAMS (95 ％ CI 0.870-0.900) and was 0.792 for ISS (95％ CI 0.773-0.811),with statistical difference of the two scoring systems (Z=4.280,P ＜0.01).To identify patients with potential critical illness,optimal cut-off point was≤7 for CRAMS and≥24 for ISS.CRAMS presented better sensitivity (x2 =16.910,P ＜ 0.01),but lower specificity (x2 =5.260,P ＜ 0.05) and accuracy (x2 =0.693,P ＞ 0.05) for predicting mortality when compared with ISS.Conclusions CRAMS is better than ISS in predicting prognosis for patients with acute trauma and exhibits a high discrimination.RAMS has advantages of simple operation,easy grasping and accurate and timely reflection of illness severity,which facilitates the early detection and treatment of critical illness in inhospital trauma patients.
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Objective To investigate the value of ISS in predicting mortality after multiple trauma.Methods A total of 550 patients with multiple trauma treated from March 2007 to May 2011 were divided into survivor group (n =473) and death group (n =77) according to the outcome.ISS and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ]) were used to predict patients' risk of death.Receiver operation characteristic curve (ROC) was developped to compare the area under the curve (AUC),optimal cut-off point,and prediction index for the two scoring systems.Results ISS and APACHE Ⅱ score were higher in death group than in survivor group (P ＜ 0.05).ISS showed the diagnostic cut-off point of ≥20,with a sensitivity of 76.7％,specificity of 83.7％,concordance rate of 82.7％,and AUC of 0.835.With regard to APACHE Ⅱ,the diagnostic cut-off point was ≥20,with a sensitivity of 80.5％,specificity of 89.2％,concordance rate of 88.0％,and AUC of 0.922.ISS and APACHE Ⅱ were equivalent in predicting mortality (P ＞ 0.05).Conclusion ISS presents a moderate value for predicting the mortality of multiple trauma patients and it is more rational to set ISS≥20 points as the criteria for severe multiple trauma.
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Objective To evaluate the application value of prehospital index (PHI) in hospitalized patients with acute trauma.Methods A study was done in 1802 hospitalized patients with acute trauma by random sampling.PHI and injury severity score (ISS) were made respectively.Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used for detecting optimal cut-off point by taking the date of discharge as the endpoint and the outcome as observed indicator.In order to compare the predicting prognosis value of PHI in hospitalized patients with acute trauma,the corresponding predicting indicators were calculated and ISS was used for reference.Results The area under the ROC curve was 0.871 (95％ CI:0.855-0.886) by the score of PHI and 0.792 (95％ CI:0.773-0.811) by the score of ISS,and there was statistically difference between the two scoring systems (Z =2.674,P =0.007),and the optimal cut-off point was used for judging the potential for critically ill patients when PHI was ≥ 4,ISS ≥ 22.The sensitivity predictors of critically ill patients death of PHI was superior to ISS (x2 =6.975,P =0.008),the specificity and the accuracy of PHI and ISS showed no significant difference (P ＞ 0.05).Conclusions PHI has high potential for assessing patient condition and predicting the death of hospitalized patients with acute trauma,and it is equivalent to ISS in prediction value.The advantages of PHI are simple in operation,easy to learn,reflecting the condition timely and reliably,suitable for dynamic evaluation and comparison,which is suitable for critical patients with trauma of preliminary screening.
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Objective To study the feasibility of modified early warning scores (MEWS) for assessing the severity and death prediction in the pre-hospital traumatic patients.MethodsData of the prehospital traumatic patients admitted between January 1,2010 and December 31,2010 were collected and assessed onsite by using MEWS.Numeration data was presented in percentage by using chi-square test,and measurement data was xepressed in mean with standard deviation,and P ＜ 0.05 was considered to be difference with statistical significance.Observation was lasted for 90 days after admission to get final results as observation object and ROC curve was drew and calculated the area under the curve for predicting severity and death of patients.The patients without vital signs and unsuccessful resuscitations were not included in this study.ResultsThere were 1475 (87.95％) cases/times with score of 0 -2,and 202 (12.05％)cases/times with score of 3 - 13.In the non-survival group,MEWS were higher than that in the survival group with statistic significance ( P ＜ 0.01 ).When the area under ROC was 0.94,the optimal cutoff point for potentially severe patients was MEWS≥3 for predicting the death of severe pre-hospital traumatic patients with sensitivity of 85.7％,specificity of 88.6％,accuracy of 88.6％ and Youden of 0.743,showing high significance of the application of MEWS to assessing severity of traumatic patients and death prediction.ConclusionsMEWS used to assess the pre-hospital traumatic patients and predict death with high validity and accurate quantification is a simple,practical and easily operable method with strong application significance.